Virtual Coupling Business Risks

Thank you for taking part in the MOVINGRAIL Virtual Coupling Business Risks survey. This survey is part of the EU funded MOVINGRAIL project, and the results of this survey will support Work Package 4 on the Business Analysis of Virtual Coupling.

Please fill the questionnaire below by assigning a number from 1 to 10 for the probability and impact of each risk listed. Questions marked with a * require an answer.
If you would like to highlight additional risks, please use the comment box in each question.

We will not be collecting any personal data in this survey. Question 11 that concerns your professional expertise in the field but will not be linked to any names or email addresses. All answers are therefore both confidential and anonymous. The statistical results from this survey will be used in the elaboration of a report that will be available on the MOVINGRAIL website: https://movingrail.eu/

When answering, please use the rules below:

The lowest probability is 1 (most unlikely to occur at all) and the highest is 10 (virtually inevitable)
On impact, 1 is of little or temporary consequence while 10 is devastating to the project/technology

Results returned by the end of 4th May will be included in results presented at the workshop on the 6th May at 10am (CET) where the results will be reviewed by the participants. If you would like to sign up to the online workshop, please register on the link below.

Register to the MOVINGRAIL Virtual Coupling Business Risks online workshop

We really appreciate your participation in this review of the business risks of Virtual Coupling.

1. Standards *

	Probability	Impact
Incompatibility with ETCS / Class B Systems	Incompatibility with ETCS / Class B Systems Probability	Incompatibility with ETCS / Class B Systems Impact
Failure to Integrate into EU/EUAR plan for standards	Failure to Integrate into EU/EUAR plan for standards Probability	Failure to Integrate into EU/EUAR plan for standards Impact
Emergence of different proprietary solutions	Emergence of different proprietary solutions Probability	Emergence of different proprietary solutions Impact
Excessive time elapses from proof of concept to defining actual specifications	Excessive time elapses from proof of concept to defining actual specifications Probability	Excessive time elapses from proof of concept to defining actual specifications Impact
Constantly changing/evolving definition of solution	Constantly changing/evolving definition of solution Probability	Constantly changing/evolving definition of solution Impact
Development of a number of black box solutions	Development of a number of black box solutions Probability	Development of a number of black box solutions Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

2. Supply Side *

	Probability	Impact
Issues emerge with ownership of IPR for solutions	Issues emerge with ownership of IPR for solutions Probability	Issues emerge with ownership of IPR for solutions Impact
Proof of concept works, but no suppliers want to invest in it	Proof of concept works, but no suppliers want to invest in it Probability	Proof of concept works, but no suppliers want to invest in it Impact
Different suppliers develop slightly different solutions	Different suppliers develop slightly different solutions Probability	Different suppliers develop slightly different solutions Impact
Supply industry opposes the overall introduction of Virtual Coupling	Supply industry opposes the overall introduction of Virtual Coupling Probability	Supply industry opposes the overall introduction of Virtual Coupling Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

3. Operations side *

	Probability	Impact
No take up from operators due to business/safety concerns	No take up from operators due to business/safety concerns Probability	No take up from operators due to business/safety concerns Impact
Failure to develop a common concepts of operations and Rule Book	Failure to develop a common concepts of operations and Rule Book Probability	Failure to develop a common concepts of operations and Rule Book Impact
Emergence of disagreement over role of train operators and infrastructure managers in deployment	Emergence of disagreement over role of train operators and infrastructure managers in deployment Probability	Emergence of disagreement over role of train operators and infrastructure managers in deployment Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

4. Technical *

	Probability	Impact
The added complexity of cooperative train control technologies needed to maximise benefits of Virtual Coupling creates unexpected system risks	The added complexity of cooperative train control technologies needed to maximise benefits of Virtual Coupling creates unexpected system risks Probability	The added complexity of cooperative train control technologies needed to maximise benefits of Virtual Coupling creates unexpected system risks Impact
Repeated failures during operation	Repeated failures during operation Probability	Repeated failures during operation Impact
Need to upgrade existing on-board systems and adaptation of logical ICT systems	Need to upgrade existing on-board systems and adaptation of logical ICT systems Probability	Need to upgrade existing on-board systems and adaptation of logical ICT systems Impact
VC will require a change to point switching technology	VC will require a change to point switching technology Probability	VC will require a change to point switching technology Impact
Solution exposes system to greater Cyber Security risks	Solution exposes system to greater Cyber Security risks Probability	Solution exposes system to greater Cyber Security risks Impact
Degraded mode operation worse than current	Degraded mode operation worse than current Probability	Degraded mode operation worse than current Impact
The system does not deliver the required outputs	The system does not deliver the required outputs Probability	The system does not deliver the required outputs Impact
Trains cannot run closer together than ETCS L3	Trains cannot run closer together than ETCS L3 Probability	Trains cannot run closer together than ETCS L3 Impact
Level of reliability and availability not sufficient	Level of reliability and availability not sufficient Probability	Level of reliability and availability not sufficient Impact
Trains can run closer on plain line but not in junction/station/complex layouts - thus limiting the benefit	Trains can run closer on plain line but not in junction/station/complex layouts - thus limiting the benefit Probability	Trains can run closer on plain line but not in junction/station/complex layouts - thus limiting the benefit Impact
Failure to develop a solution for handling of grade crossings	Failure to develop a solution for handling of grade crossings Probability	Failure to develop a solution for handling of grade crossings Impact
Lack of availability of spectrum for Communications	Lack of availability of spectrum for Communications Probability	Lack of availability of spectrum for Communications Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

5. Regulatory *

	Probability	Impact
UK/EU Brexit Issues restrict British contribution to project/solutions	UK/EU Brexit Issues restrict British contribution to project/solutions Probability	UK/EU Brexit Issues restrict British contribution to project/solutions Impact
Uncertainty about who will 'sign off' the system	Uncertainty about who will 'sign off' the system Probability	Uncertainty about who will 'sign off' the system Impact
Interaction between national safety authority and EURA jurisdiction causes delay in process of approval	Interaction between national safety authority and EURA jurisdiction causes delay in process of approval Probability	Interaction between national safety authority and EURA jurisdiction causes delay in process of approval Impact
System shown to work but not supported by Commission	System shown to work but not supported by Commission Probability	System shown to work but not supported by Commission Impact
Non fulfilment of CSM-RA	Non fulfilment of CSM-RA Probability	Non fulfilment of CSM-RA Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

6. Transition / implementation issues *

	Probability	Impact
Migration to ETCS Level 3 with Moving Block may take a very long time	Migration to ETCS Level 3 with Moving Block may take a very long time Probability	Migration to ETCS Level 3 with Moving Block may take a very long time Impact
Most promising routes for upgrade have most modern signalling	Most promising routes for upgrade have most modern signalling Probability	Most promising routes for upgrade have most modern signalling Impact
Incompatibility with existing systems at interfaces or if used as an overlay system	Incompatibility with existing systems at interfaces or if used as an overlay system Probability	Incompatibility with existing systems at interfaces or if used as an overlay system Impact
Uncertainty about track, train, route systems and the migration sequence	Uncertainty about track, train, route systems and the migration sequence Probability	Uncertainty about track, train, route systems and the migration sequence Impact
Migration to ETCS Level 3 with Moving Block never delivered	Migration to ETCS Level 3 with Moving Block never delivered Probability	Migration to ETCS Level 3 with Moving Block never delivered Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

7. Business case *

	Probability	Impact
Insurers become reluctant to carry risks of solutions	Insurers become reluctant to carry risks of solutions Probability	Insurers become reluctant to carry risks of solutions Impact
Elapsed time between now and implementation may change business cases	Elapsed time between now and implementation may change business cases Probability	Elapsed time between now and implementation may change business cases Impact
Uncertainty about what risks (schedule, technical and cost) to build in to project evaluations	Uncertainty about what risks (schedule, technical and cost) to build in to project evaluations Probability	Uncertainty about what risks (schedule, technical and cost) to build in to project evaluations Impact
Uncertainty about lifetime costs (maintenance and recovery)	Uncertainty about lifetime costs (maintenance and recovery) Probability	Uncertainty about lifetime costs (maintenance and recovery) Impact
Costs exceed the benefits	Costs exceed the benefits Probability	Costs exceed the benefits Impact
Passengers may not adjust to the different operations	Passengers may not adjust to the different operations Probability	Passengers may not adjust to the different operations Impact
Costs understood, benefits less clear and in the future	Costs understood, benefits less clear and in the future Probability	Costs understood, benefits less clear and in the future Impact
Business case impossible to forecast before implementation	Business case impossible to forecast before implementation Probability	Business case impossible to forecast before implementation Impact
Uncertainty about compatibility with next generation of CCS	Uncertainty about compatibility with next generation of CCS Probability	Uncertainty about compatibility with next generation of CCS Impact
Unable to define the Units of output at which benefits exceed the costs	Unable to define the Units of output at which benefits exceed the costs Probability	Unable to define the Units of output at which benefits exceed the costs Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

8. Public acceptance *

	Probability	Impact
Media/public suspicious of trains that cannot stop in the gap to the next train	Media/public suspicious of trains that cannot stop in the gap to the next train Probability	Media/public suspicious of trains that cannot stop in the gap to the next train Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

9. Safety *

	Probability	Impact
Near misses during operations	Near misses during operations Probability	Near misses during operations Impact
Accident during testing undermines confidence	Accident during testing undermines confidence Probability	Accident during testing undermines confidence Impact
Accident during live operation undermines confidence	Accident during live operation undermines confidence Probability	Accident during live operation undermines confidence Impact
Repeated failures not leading to incidents	Repeated failures not leading to incidents Probability	Repeated failures not leading to incidents Impact
Near mIsses during testing	Near mIsses during testing Probability	Near mIsses during testing Impact

Additional risks – please list and assess probability and impact eg Risk xx 6/3

10. How would you describe yourself in terms of expertise in railway signalling and control? *

Limited
Practitioner
Expert

11. Any Comments you wish to add:

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